Rent Prices Drop 28 Straight Months as Sun Belt Markets Face Steepest Declines

With the increased availability of apartments, landlords are facing greater competition and have shifted some of their negotiating advantages toward renters. Therefore, U.S. renters are currently experiencing one of the best negotiation opportunities in years due to these factors. Analysts say the trend is likely to extend well into 2026, provided the broader economy avoids a significant shock. Concessions, price cuts, and flexible lease terms have become increasingly common across major metro areas.

“Barring a major economic shock, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the more renter-friendly periods we've seen in a decade,” says Michelle Griffith, a luxury real estate broker at Douglas Elliman. The shift reflects a market in which supply growth has outpaced demand, particularly in newer, larger apartment buildings.

“We're seeing price wars within buildings, longer days on market, and the need for multiple price reductions just to generate foot traffic,” says Jaclyn Bild, a real estate broker associate at Douglas Elliman. Landlords frequently offer concessions such as free months of rent, reduced deposits, and flexible lease terms to compete for tenants.

Rent declines have been most pronounced in fast-growing Sun Belt and interior Western markets that absorbed large volumes of new supply. Rental prices fell by 6.6% in Austin, making it a leader of the pullback, along with Denver, Birmingham, Jacksonville, Phoenix, San Diego, Las Vegas, Houston, Miami, and San Antonio.

According to recent statistics, the upsurge in housing completions since the start of 2023 will likely lead to a cooling trend. Over 600,000 new multifamily housing units were completed during the 2024 calendar year, the highest annual total since the 1980s, leading to increased competition among landlords. Given the large number of newly constructed properties and the many vacancies, rental rates are expected to remain relatively stable until early 2026.

“This is a good time to negotiate rather than assume the asking rent is fixed,” says Griffith. “Landlords are far more open to concessions, flexible lease terms, or modest rent reductions than they were even a year ago. Locking in a lease during periods of elevated supply, especially in late winter or early spring, can provide cost certainty before demand picks up again.”

Rents in November showed declines across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Average rents in those areas were $1,693 and had decreased by about 1% compared with the previous year. The national median rent was $1,367, down 1.1% year over year. Steep declines have occurred over the last year as well, and support continued anticipation of easing rental prices into 2026 and beyond.